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dangerous mix: Slowing Inflation +

More signs of U.S. economic slowdown is read from the famous Beige Book Federal Reserve (FED). This document, which appeared Wednesday 26, would strengthen one of the ideas raised in the left previous post. The sense that the upward cycle in interest rates would be coming to an end. Cycle were participating central banks in the U.S., Europe and even Japan, which put end policy-zero rate that prevailed over the past six years.

But what is the Beige Book ?

is a summary of U.S. economic conditions has been developed by various institutions (among other companies) in relation to variables such as private consumption, inflation, labor market, wages and trends by sector. This document supports the process of making decisions on monetary policy carried out by the FED.

What does the latter report?

This report contains information up to July 17 highlights the following: 1 .-

Economic activity continued to grow overall, although in some regions there was some slowdown.
2 .- Private consumption showed slightly weaker in most districts. 3 .-
Retail sales grew at a modest pace compared to the level recorded earlier this year.
4 .- However, manufacturing activity remains strong and sales of durable goods remained robust. 5 .-
upward pressure on prices of final goods and salaries remain modest, due to increase in energy costs and supplies in general.
6 .- Competition among companies offset the pressures on consumer prices.
7 .- In most areas there was a moderation in housing activity. 8.-
While residential real estate activity has cooled, declining home sales, some districts show some demand for space for commercial activity. 9 .-
acquired mortgage loans and the demand for consumer loans. However, following strong demand for corporate credit.

What can you expect?

more evident is the message of economic slowdown , but softens the message about inflation , but to continue the rise in fuel prices worldwide, the upward pressure on production costs continue. That is, the risks to price stability remain.

Since the latter, it is likely that the Fed decreed a further increase in interest rates in the August meeting in order to strengthen the conditions for maintaining stability in the general price level.

On the other hand, if more severe slowdown for U.S. economy in the coming months, the final of the rate hikes would be close. Remember that the Fed has raised rates 17 times since June 2004 to its current level of 5.25%.

In this sense, the comments of Livermore left in the previous post are overwhelming: "Bernanke quarter-point rises and it ...". Let's see what happens on August 8 when the Fed meets again, for now what is the probability you assigned to the Fed to raise rates to 5.5%?.

Updated Friday 28:

Another data confirming the slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Why Do Some Guys Paint Their Pinky Nails?

is clouding the future of the global economy.

While the price escalation that has been observed in the crude market is already public knowledge, the expectations that exist about the global economy is not an issue known to all.

Some analysts are betting on a severe recession next year. And is that the price of oil, adjusted for inflation, was not as expensive since 1980. But for that to happen would take a big shock on oil supplies so that triggered prices above $ 100. And

increases are explained by a combination of geopolitical factors and not by supply problems-certainly other analysts expect most optimistic that the global economy weakens only . And for this to be true, requires that oil exceeds U.S. $ 80 per barrel made not far from our current reality. The week before oil hit a record high above $ 78 a barrel after the escalation of conflict in the Middle East.

Although oil last Thursday loosened its upward trend, closing on Friday at a price between $ 74 and $ 75 the week starts with expectations is not very encouraging.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East, the missile program of North Korea and Japan warning of attack in case you drop or spend a missile over its territory and rebel attacks on production infrastructure oil in Nigeria, would prolong the upward trend in oil prices.

The unknowns that remain unresolved

Although OPEC says in its latest monthly report that next year the price of oil will decline. The scenario we see today leads to price in the opposite direction, thus raises important questions to resolve, some of them were the breakthrough:

How much is speculation in the oil price increases?. Does
upward cycle of interest rates has come to an end?.
Do we face a slowdown in U.S. economy?.
"The slowdown in the U.S. will be offset by an acceleration in Europe?.
"Chinese consumers will be able to take the place to stop the Americans if the U.S. economy weakens?.

Updated Friday 28:

Geopolitics unrelieved Go up again oil prices, mainly due to fears about Nigeria and the Middle East.

Blog Through the Livermore came to this site, it will find an analysis of the topic Nigeria and its effects.

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"Adjustment time?

The Council of Central Bank of Chile (BC) meets tomorrow, Thursday 13 to discuss the course that will take Monetary Policy Rate (TPM). This rate, which acts as a guiding rate of the economy is now at 5.0% and could rise to 5.25% .

Reasons: Inflation

There has been a greater impetus to the local economy (see May Imacec ). The acceleration was this indicator is a good sign after the pale April results, which leads to optimistic expectations for results in the coming months. Therefore, to increased economic activity, there more demand pressure on prices.

supply problems in the international oil market and consequent price rise, have led to increases in fuel prices and tariffs of public transportation, strongly affecting IPC June which increased by 0.6%. Therefore, caution is required not exceed the ceiling of the target range that the monetary authority has proposed this year.

Energy insecurity generated to future increases in the price gas, caused by the new tax regime that Argentina imposed on its exports of natural gas. This accentuates for Chile problem "import inflation" , to purchase goods from countries with this problem.

developed Monetary Policy

The increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) U.S. late last June distanced our rate of 5.0% with the U.S. rate of 5.25% . This encourages a degree of arbitration fees, which encourages capital flight to invest in U.S. at a more attractive and less risk.

should add that the interest rate was zero percent in Japan, you may end next Friday when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raise rates (0.25%) for the first time in six years. Measure that represents a major change in Japanese monetary policy, to enter a cycle setting monetary as central banks in the U.S. and Europe.

Is it time to put the brakes?

The slow process of policy adjustment monetary policy, conducted by the BC is seen as the most advisable to maintain macroeconomic balance.

however, should not be forgotten that the signs of rising rates ( is waiting two more ) will have a negative impact on the domestic market. Investment and consumption -engines to accelerate growth and absorb the current and the still high unemployment - resent the weight of higher interest rates.

Updated today Friday 14:

The BC issued its usual press release, in which it confirms what the market already guessed: the MPR was raised by 25 basis points to reach 5.25%. However, it is interesting to dwell on the statement and points were:

1 .- ... "available information suggests that the increase in the rate of growth envisaged for the second half could be somewhat lower than expected ". bad thing because it means that the authority does not foresee a growth scenario in line with expectations.

2 .- ... "deliberate adjustments are still needed in the interest rate to keep inflation" ... "The timing of these adjustments will depend on the background to accumulate, may be less prevalent than in recent quarters." I think it speaks for itself, at the next meetings shall levy no fee, but will do so before year's end.

3 .- This shows a path different from that posed by economic agents, since the latter successive hikes expected TPM.

Some interesting sites: As works a meeting of the Chilean Central Bank by a Catholic professor.
An educational site with information bank developed in our country.

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Italy won ....

Minutes have finished the World Cup "Germany 2006" the world's newspapers and published:


"ecstatic fans have taken to the streets throughout Italy ".....

Good start for the supposed dynamism that will propel the economy Italian as proposed by this analysis published the Sunday 11 June.

Circo Massimo in Rome, the Italian newspaper Repubblica photo
Fontana di Trevi, photo of the Italian newspaper Il Giorno.

How Long Is Plan B In Your System

In China there is no stopping her.

If China last January was at the place occupied France: fifth global economy today is history. The latest study by the World Bank -widely circulated in the national press and international and some blogs locales-places it in the fourth moving to the UK position.

lies ahead Only the United States, Japan and Germany. Little to the Asian giant whose growth this year expected to exceed 9%, well above the 1.7% predicted for Germany.

To continue this race unstoppable, China Direct is located at the top of the world's economies. This study was taken for granted: In 2050 China will have a GDP in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) - 26% higher than the U.S.. The firm Goldman Sachs , is bolder still. His bet is for 2040. Predicting addition to the new team to lead the world economy: China, USA, India, Japan, Brazil and Russia. Contrast

Despite the macroeconomic figures, the economy China is still among the last countries in the world in per capita income, an indicator that ranks the 128, behind states such as Gabon, Namibia or Botswana.

And if the distribution of wealth is concerned, China is not the best example. Has a distribution that is not the most equitable in the world. To break one fact: China concentrates 18% of the world's poor. And to continue, with more than 85 million people live on less than a dollar a day.

Academy of Social Sciences of China also recognizes the gap between rich and poor. During 2005, reported that the per capita disposable income of families more wealth, who constitute 10% of the urban population was 8 times higher than the rural poor families also constitute 10% of rural population.

For his part GINI coefficient, which also speaks of a society with high social disparity lies in a dangerous 0.447 and could be even higher as some high-income groups are not considered in their calculation.

Finally there is the Human Development Index (HDI ) than in the case of China is not very attractive. A long and healthy life, access to education and a decent standard of living, all variables that make up this indicator, are still a privileged few. According to a ranking by the UNDP , in 2004 the Chinese occupied 94 place and 2005 remain well below ...

As China seeks formula to bridge this gap, the economy will continue with sustained growth and needless to say, when NASA came to the moon again in 2020, the Chinese will be waiting.