The role of expectations Olganza If you do not know or have heard of the Phillips Curve , it is time to do so. Since the new Nobel Laureate in Economics, American Edmund Phelps , professor at the University of Columbia, put it back on the table.
Phillips curve was made from a study made in England in the nineteenth century which found a negative correlation between unemployment and inflation. D ince then the Phillips curve suggests that it is impossible to simultaneously achieve a high level of employment and low inflation as the government's economic policy has to decide on a combination of two rates.
This is explained as follows: when in charge of monetary policy in a country want to achieve a lower unemployment rate must be willing to accept higher inflation, and that to achieve the first ( reduce unemployment) the formula requires stimulating the economy through low interest rates that generate increased consumption, increased production and thus greater use .... but also higher inflation. Because the closer to full employment is an economy less option is to increase production to a greater demand ... and the solution is to increase prices.
However, in the sixties Phelps, along with Milton Friedman Nobel also questioned the rigidity of curve, reinterpreting and providing a better understanding of the relationship between inflation and unemployment.
suggested that inflation rose faster than expected, people and businesses adjust their expectations, leading to wages and prices adjust to the faster rate. As a result, the economic stimulus aimed at reducing unemployment could continue to drive inflation increasing, as new price increases exacerbate price increases expected.
is in this area: inflation and unemployment that Phelps developed his famous theory, of the "natural rate of unemployment " according to this model, which refines previous studies by economists like Keynes and Phillips, the market equilibrium does not necessarily mean the elimination of a certain level of unemployment, defined by Phelps as" involuntary ", and still useful economic growth.
Bonus Track: An interview radial the new Nobel economics. Imperdible!
I heard this interview : Sálvate .