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Germany 2006: Farewell to the fanaticism ... Italy should be the champion. The world upside

Although my favorite to win this World Cup is Argentina, I'm in a contradiction between what he tells me the reason and what I dictate feelings. And they immediately explain why. A study by ABN Amro and recently published - Soccernomics 2006 - reveals that Italy is the country suited to win the World Cup, and that his victory would lead to a positive growth the global economy. To think is not it?.

And the favorite of those economists are not on the side of bigotry, nor the technical football, even for nationalism (obviously, if so had pointed to by the Netherlands to champion), but rely on the economic outlook. The study reveals that if Italy manages to devote the best in the world for the fourth time in history, the benefits for the global economy will be important.

The sound-wave factor

The influence of football and especially a World Cup on people no less. A favorable action of the national team in the field, increases the confidence of the fans. Happier citizens, are consumers likely to spend more. Resulting in more trips to the supermarket, more barbecues (or its equivalent in the respective country), purchases of souvenirs (T-shirts, flags, badges etc ....) Before, during and after the victory.

The study demonstrates. Economic growth in those countries that win the World Cup tends to be much better during the World Cup the country that loses the final. "The winner enjoys an additional average growth of 0.7%, while the finalists suffered a loss in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) 0.3%, compared with the previous year.

Now if we add that the winner of the cup also have played a greater number of matches and that the psychological impact of a positive environment is spread, we ready. He started to run the multiplier effect of the economy and rising confidence indices.

Europeans take it

To choose your winner, the Dutch bank had considered a number of criteria. Among them, the champion nation should be European. And Why Europe? will ask you.

The point that led economists to a conclusion like this is the imbalance that exists today in the world economy, especially beaten by current account deficit (imports greater than exports) U.S.. A dangerous gap that has persisted since the time it has been of substantial size and is the U.S.: the economy of greater weight in the world.

While economic growth in the U.S., Asia and Latin America has been high in recent years Europe has been delayed. So if the U.S. won the imbalance would be greater, an Asian victory could lead to overheating of the region and the success of a Latin American country not help to ease the economic problems and global imbalances.

So, which is Europe must grow economically. Increased internal demanad the continent, would attract investors and foreign goods, easing the current desequelibrio. And one possible way to accelerate that change, is that one of the major countries of the region to win the World Cup.

But, why Italy?

Italians can create more opportunities if they win the tournament to another European country. The reason is that the Italian economy is hampered by an inflexible labor market, ie a hard time generating new jobs, and present a very poor competitiveness.

A victory of Italy at the World Food greater confidence in consumers and producers, leading to increased spending and investment. Global positive impact that would also hand the recognition of their products, highly favorable element for Italian industry sees as its production and manufacturing has been shrinking since 2001. Open the door to establish business relationships and get investors, prompting the government to introduce new economic reforms, now take place very slowly.

In simple words: must earn an economy large enough to be noticeable impact on the rest of the world and should win an economy that actually benefits from the impact, ie, that economically it is well to with positive impact on take-off impulse.